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The first month of 2026 delivered mixed results. For the fourth consecutive month, The Sports Bettor posted a solid profit, while Live Betting + recorded a smaller loss.
The year got off to a flying start in our pregame group, delivering a profit of 17 units and a return on investment of more than 118% (meaning that for every 100 DKK invested, you received 118 DKK back). This is highly satisfactory in a month where the Danish leagues – our primary source of revenue – were on pause.
There was still Danish football on the menu in the form of friendly matches, and it is somewhat hard to understand that one of the month’s largest bets, worth 3.5 units, ended in a loss. We recommended OB -0.75 Asian against Piast Gliwice, and shortly before kick-off the line had moved all the way to -1.75. We very rarely experience odds movements of that magnitude, and although the bet did not win, this is exactly the type of value we must continue to pursue.
There were also several strong bets that beat the closing line without resulting in a win. Both Stuttgart +0.5 Asian away against Roma and over 3.5 goals in Villarreal–Ajax dropped significantly in odds, but neither bet landed.
This underlines that there was fundamentally strong value throughout the month, and of course we also hit a number of winning bets. The highest winning odds were 0-0 at half-time in Uzbekistan–South Korea U23 at 2.55, and in the same tournament we also hit 0-0 at half-time in Iraq–Australia U23 at 2.40. These two bets contributed nicely to the bottom line, together with the final five bets of the month, all of which were settled as winners for solid stakes.
In February, the Danish Superliga returns, and this is a league that will once again receive significant focus in 2026. We are looking forward to getting started and are pleased to note that our all-time performance in Sportsbetteren across 3,003 bets stands at +6.19%. This has been achieved without consistently selecting the very highest odds in the market when a smaller bookmaker deviates significantly from the rest. We aim to play at representative odds and are not interested in artificially inflating the overall return rate, as we believe this would present an unrealistic picture of what subscribers can expect over time.
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• Number of bets: 34
• Turnover: 96.4 units
• Profit: +17.41 units
• ROI: +18.04%
Naturally, it is disappointing that the live group once again produced a loss. Although the result was significantly better than in December, we need to return to profit. We believe this can be achieved by maintaining discipline and focus within a setup that has so far generated a total profit of 212 units across 2,422 bets and an ROI of 103.62%. This remains a satisfactory level, particularly as we benchmark against only one bookmaker and operate in a market that is often highly efficient and liquid.
The match between Charlton and Sheffield United presented an interesting betting scenario. Sheffield were reduced to nine men against Charlton’s eleven, and with the home side in the lead it was natural to look for another goal as the game opened up and Sheffield were forced to chase the match. Aside from a set-piece where Charlton came very close, the home side surprisingly created little, and we lost three units.
Does that mean it was a bad bet? No, of course not. However, we must remain aware of the teams involved, and Charlton are, after all, not Bayern Munich. This is a rare scenario, and when a match opens up to this extent, we should generally take the opportunity – especially when the price, as in this case, is not completely crushed.
Another over bet that was clearly worth taking was over 2.5 goals in PSG–Newcastle. Neither team could use a draw for much in the final round of the Champions League group stage, so we backed another goal. A solid bet that simply didn’t land – and that happens in some months.
We also played over goals in Hannover–Düsseldorf following a similar logic. Hannover were playing 11 versus 10 and leading by one goal, and although there were signs of big chances, the goal never came in a match where there was not an excessive amount of added time.
By contrast, we read the match between Werder Bremen and Hoffenheim perfectly. We went over 10.0 Asian corners because Bremen began to push Hoffenheim’s ten men hard down the flanks and because a significant amount of time had been added. At the time of placing the bet, there had been eight corners, and the match finished with 13 in total – a fully deserved win. Our over bet in FCM–Dinamo Zagreb and Genk -0.5 asian against Malmö were equally well read.
Another strong example was OB’s friendly match against Karpaty Lviv. Watching the stream, we identified that OB had a strong tailwind in the first half, and we therefore released a bet on OB, which resulted in a well-earned profit. This particular bet clearly demonstrates how we – especially in small markets such as friendly matches – can gain a significant edge simply by watching the game, something the vast majority of the market is unlikely to prioritise in such situations.
Naturally, there were also poor bets – this is unavoidable in a losing month and over longer periods in general. Unfortunately, we do not have a crystal ball, but we do our best to read what will unfold in a match. The Stuttgart bet against Union Berlin, for instance, suffered from very poor timing, as Union scored immediately afterwards, and there were other bets that could have been better executed. Overall, however, the impression remains that we made many correct decisions without receiving full compensation for the work.
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• Number of bets: 44
• Turnover: 121 units
• Profit: -4.77 units
• ROI: -3.94 %
