Bloody September filled with bad bets and negative variance

September ended with a big loss in the Live Betting+ group and a lukewarm performance in Sportsbetteren.

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After a couple of strong months in the Live Betting+ group, we lost 17.586 units in September. The result was a mix of bad bets and negative variance, which is completely unavoidable in what we do. There WILL be losing months – that cannot be avoided.

It also cannot be avoided that recommendations sometimes miss the mark. The good news is that there are always lessons to be learned, and we will use the following sections to reflect on them.

We’ve seen it before, and we’ll take it again: it’s difficult to bet favorites when they are leading by two and the opponent has a red card. That’s what we did in Heidenheim vs. Dortmund mid-month, and the month before we did the same on FC Midtjylland in Finland. Dortmund led 2-0 and looked well in control, but the dynamic that often occurs is that the game slows down towards the very end – and then it doesn’t help to be hoping for more goals.

An important mental note, therefore, is that we must be very cautious in those scenarios. When the game is flowing, and the favorite is creating big, beautiful chances in the 75th or 78th minute against a tired underdog, it’s a natural human reaction to think: “Heidenheim will never survive this – value on Dortmund.” But maybe the thought next time should be: Dortmund doesn’t care in the last five minutes, and Heidenheim has already resigned. The value must be on Heidenheim +0.25 asian or the under.

The fantastic thing about sports betting, however, is that we cannot generalize, and sometimes the value really will be on Dortmund. But it’s a pattern that seems to repeat itself, so it’s worth keeping an eye on.

Strangely enough, something similar happened with the Netherlands, which we backed -0.5 away to Lithuania. This time it was 11 vs. 11, but the Dutch – despite being big favorites – barely created a chance after we backed them. Was that predictable? It’s hard to argue either way, but it certainly didn’t play out well.

We also missed several “over” bets in games that were 11 vs. 10, a scenario that has previously delivered strong profits. And it’s tough to turn a profit in a month when we also miss a four-unit bet. The big losses on single games hurt when it’s time to tally up the results.

Perhaps part of the explanation also lies in pure negative variance. It was wild that Shabab Al Ahli didn’t score again against Tractor (hitting the post twice in a bombardment), Leipzig missed a penalty in Wolfsburg, and FCK also pushed hard against Silkeborg but couldn’t score again.

For the year, we stand at 409 bets, a profit of 28.91 units, and an ROI of 102.77% in the live betting group. Our alltime performance is an ROI 0f 104,78% with a total profit of 258,38 units on a turnover of 5.409 units on 2.243 bets only quoting bet365’s odds.

September 2025 in Live Betting+:
Bets: 38
Units staked: 93
Result: -17.586 units
Return percentage: 81.1%

September was also a lukewarm month in the Sportsbetteren subscription, with a small loss of 1.73 units. In itself, that is by no means alarming, but our ambitions are higher than that, so let’s take a look at what actually happened during the month.

If we start with the positives, there were several strong bets on major markets with solid closing line value. We had spotted early on that Kairat Almaty would have to field their third-choice goalkeeper in Lisbon against Sporting, who won 4-1 without much trouble and covered the -2.5 handicap.

There was also solid closing line value on Galatasaray +0.5 in Frankfurt, which closed as -0.25 favorites. Yes, Frankfurt ended up winning 5-1, but the game was basically even on expected goals, and it’s hard to be unhappy about getting our money in so well, even if on the surface it might look like a bad bet based solely on the scoreline.

Liverpool was another team we had a good handle on in September. We were on both teams to score in Liverpool vs. Southampton, we were on Crystal Palace +0.5, and we were on Galatasaray +1 in the Champions League. In other words, we pulled off a Liverpool hat trick with green bets.

But that shouldn’t distract from the fact that overall it was a disappointing month. Several of us agreed that Bayern to win in a low-scoring game in Pafos was a good bet, but it was anything but. Bayern are unstoppable, and the money came in strongly against us.

Earlier in the month, we also didn’t get it quite right when we backed Greece against Denmark. In the match itself, it was without question the right side to be on. But the money came in heavily on our +0 asian recommendation, as Greece closed as -0.25 favorites. The easiest thing in the world is to be smart after the fact when you have all the results, but one thought is that the market is sometimes predictable. Denmark had just delivered a poor performance, Greece was cruising and at that time arguably one of the hottest teams in Europe. In such a situation, it’s natural for money to flow toward Greece, and so it’s hard to be dissatisfied with the recommendation in a technical sense – especially since we again beat the closing line.

But wow, you’d have played that game differently if you’d waited for the “predictable” move toward Greece and then gone against it with Denmark +0.25 asian at kick-off. Sports betting is by no means that simple, but it can be fun – and useful mental training – to think through matches that way, because there are lessons in everything, including here, where Denmark deservedly won 3-0.

September 2025 in The Sports Bettor:
Bets: 46
Units staked: 124
Result: -1.73 units
Return percentage: 98.60%