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In this article, we review the results from our two Plus groups: The Sports Bettor and Live Betting +.
There is really only one way to describe it: July was an absolute crusher in our pre-match betting group, The Sports Bettor.
We published a total of 43 official picks, and only 13 of them lost. It therefore quickly becomes clear that a lot went our way during a month that finished with a profit of no less than 34 units.
The result becomes even more impressive when you consider that we missed three bets staked at four out of five units. Before moving on to everything that went right, let’s briefly look at those bets.
Among other things, we backed Spain to win the first-half corner count against France at the World Cup, but judging by the match itself, we have to admit it was the wrong side, as France won the first-half corners 3-1. In the same match, we also backed no cards in the first half, but two yellow cards – the first after just nine minutes – quickly ruined that bet.
Fortunately, there were many other occasions throughout the month where our reads were spot on. We had an excellent recommendation on AGF +0.75 Asian Handicap away to Lech Poznan (AGF won 3-0 in Poland after 90 minutes!), and at the same time we can allow ourselves to feel a little frustrated about our 3.5-unit bet on Poznan to qualify after the Polish side won 4-1 in Aarhus. From a Danish football perspective, though, it was obviously great to see AGF progress.
The same evening, we backed Polissya +1.5 Asian Handicap against FC Copenhagen in Parken. Although the 2-1 goal only arrived deep into stoppage time, it was one of the best bets of the month based on the closing line. The handicap had moved from +1.5 to +0.75 by kick-off, confirming that we were very much on the right side of the market.
The same can be said about FC Midtjylland to win the first half against Cardiff. We had identified that Cardiff were fielding several youth players in the friendly, while FC Midtjylland – who were much further ahead in their pre-season preparations – started with their strongest players. That was enough for us to stake three units on the bet, which could easily have justified an even bigger stake. Midtjylland led 3-0 at half-time.
There were many more outstanding bets: Lugano to beat Dukagjini, Besiktas not to lose against FC Midtjylland, and under 1.25 Asian goals in Paraguay vs France. We could go on, because overall it was a highly satisfying month.
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Number of bets: 43
Turnover: 127.5 units
Profit: +34.05 units
Return on Investment (ROI): 126.71%
We got off to a flying start in our live betting group in July with a healthy profit during the first 10 days of the month. From there, however, things went downhill, and we finished with an ROI of 96.09%. In other words, you would have lost 3.91 kroner for every 100 kroner staked.
Let’s start with the positives. We had an excellent read on the World Cup during the first third of the month. France -0.5 Asian Handicap against Sweden was a great call, and we also placed a large bet (4 out of 5 units) on Argentina -0.5 Asian Handicap in extra time against Cape Verde. Argentina took the lead early, and although Cape Verde put significant pressure on the tiring Argentinians afterwards, there is no doubt that at odds of 1.95 we were still on the right side of the value.
Unfortunately, things quickly deteriorated after that, and we lost the majority of our recommendations for the rest of the month. Dinamo Zagreb missed an open goal when we backed over 1.5 goals in extra time against Thun, Kairat failed to make the most of playing with a numerical advantage in extra time against Omonia, and there were plenty of goals in extra time between Ilves and Stjarnan despite us betting on the opposite outcome.
Of those bets, the first two were particularly strong and were probably more a case of negative variance than poor analysis, while the last one was simply the wrong side. The same applied when we backed over corners in France vs England in the bronze medal match. Our thesis was that both teams would play aggressively and create plenty of shots. That certainly happened, but the chances were of such high quality that the game turned into a goal fest rather than a corner fest. In hindsight, goals would obviously have been the better angle. Normally, however, a high number of shots correlates well with a high number of corners.
Number of bets: 48
Turnover: 136.5 units
Profit: -5.34 units
Return on Investment (ROI): 96.09%
