July turned out to be a good one for our recommendations in Live Betting+

An unusual situation in a couple of football matches helped ensure that July was a good month for the Live Betting+ subscription, which ended with nearly 16 units in profit. It’s certainly not every day that we bet on a match where one team is playing 11 vs. 9 – but it happened twice in the same month, and both times we were on the right side and secured nice wins.

The first match was between Häcken and Djurgården. Häcken had received two red cards and was hopelessly behind, so the task was to assess whether Djurgården would keep attacking late in the second half, or if both teams would shut it down. Fortunately, Djurgården kept pushing – and so did our -0.5 Asian recommendation.

The second bet was in the game between Ludogorets and Rijeka. In hindsight, the stake should have been a notch higher. Ludogorets were 11 vs. 9, at home, and one goal ahead, while Rijeka – visibly tired in the final minutes of extra time – had to go all-in.

A situation like this is extremely rare. We staked three units at odds 2.37 on at least one more goal being scored. The high odds justify a medium stake due to the higher variance, but looking back, this is exactly the kind of spot that only comes around a couple of times a year – and the eye test confirmed it. Shortly before the bet was shared, Ludogorets had missed a huge chance, so in that light, staking four units would not have been out of line.

Of course, there were also bets that were misread or simply didn’t play out well – as there are in every month. For example, there was no real action in the friendly between FCK and HSV, where we had three units on one more goal. We also backed Koper +0.25 at halftime in the return leg against Viking, but as the two matches Viking won 12-3 on aggregate showed, the gap in quality was too great.

July 2025 in Live Betting+:
Bets: 42
Units staked: 111
Result: +15.81
ROI: 114.24%

Lukewarm month in Sportsbetteren

July, on the other hand, was a lukewarm experience in our pregame subscription ‘Sportsbetteren’.

We ended the month with a small loss – partly due to a completely off recommendation on Trnava at home against Häcken in the Europa League. We recommended Trnava -0.25 Asian at odds 2.05, but the closing odds ended up all the way at 3.07 – which gives a (negative) value of 63.24% after adjusting for the bookmaker’s margin. In other words: If you had bet 100 kroner, you would – in theory – lose 37.76 kroner!

Fortunately, we rarely miss the closing line by that much, but it does happen. This is not to say that the market is always right. Many factors come into play, and sometimes we weigh a variable differently – and more correctly – than the market. But can you be profitable over time if the market consistently moves against you? That’s more doubtful.

In the book Squares & Sharps, Suckers & Sharks, Joseph Buchdahl describes the theory “Wisdom of the Crowd.” The idea is that the market consists of thousands of actors (bookmakers, professionals, casual bettors), and when they all place bets based on their own assessments, the market adjusts itself. Odds move toward a point where all available information is priced in – like an average guess often being more accurate than an individual’s estimate.

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Luckily, we also had many strong recommendations in July. In fact, we beat the closing odds on 27 out of the 39 bets we were able to track (no closing odds available for Haverfordwest and Runavik not to score). In nearly 70% of bets, we had a theoretically positive investment – even after adjusting for the bookmaker’s margin.

Best examples: under 3.0 goals Asian in AIK–Paide, St. Joseph’s +0 Asian vs. Cliftonville, and under 2.5 goals in USA–Mexico. All had a bet value around 130%, but we only won one, got our stake back on another – and lost the USA–Mexico bet despite massive closing line value.

In sports betting, it’s often down to small margins – but if we keep beating the closing odds, there’s every reason to stay optimistic.

For the year we have a ROI of 106,91% over 305 picks.

July 2025 in Sportsbetteren:
Bets: 41
Turnover: 115 units
Result: -4.09
ROI: 96.44%