May results: Strong pregame picks, but live bets fell short

May turned out to be a mixed bag for the Monetos Plus subscriptions The Sportsbettor and Live Betting +, with a solid profit in the former and a loss in the latter.

The Sports Bettor – pregame tips

We begin with our pregame group, where betting tips are sent out before the matches begin.

Results for May 2025:

• Number of bets: 48

• Turnover: 138.5 units

• Profit/loss: +18.7 units

• Return on investment (ROI): 113.5%

That’s a very solid result – and a good portion of the profit came from two high-stake bets that both hit the mark.

Early in the month, we staked 4/5 units on a halftime score of 0-0 in the Championship clash between Derby and Stoke. The recommendation landed at odds 2.50, and the closing odds followed suit, dropping to as low as 2.19.

Later in the month, we went for over 2.5 goals in Lyngby vs. Aalborg with a stake of 4.5/5 units. This also paid off, with odds dropping from 1.85 to 1.54 – equivalent to a bet value of 114.96 percent after adjusting for bookmaker margin.

We tracked closing odds on 44 of the 48 bets (some matches like “Kalmar to win to nil vs Umeå” had no available closing odds data), and in 30 of them, the bet value was above 100 percent. This indicates that in theory, we can expect profit in the long run, given the high return rate. Beating the closing line in over two-thirds of cases, after adjusting for the bookmaker’s margin, is very encouraging.

A strong example from May was Elversberg to win away at Nürnberg. We recommended the bet at odds 2.05 with three units, and the closing odds dropped all the way to 1.68 – a bet value of 117.63 percent.

On the flip side, we missed the mark with FC Nordsjælland vs. Brøndby – at least from a market perspective. We recommended the home win at odds 2.50, but the closing odds went up to 3.39, yielding a bet value of just 71.24 percent. This may be the first time we’ve seen such a big shift in the wrong direction under the Monetos Plus brand. The bet lost, even though the actual match dynamics supported the pick – FCN had 1.94 expected goals vs. Brøndby’s 0.94.

Live Betting + – live recommendations

Results for May 2025:

• Number of bets: 38

• Turnover: 97 units

• Profit/loss: –4.86 units

• ROI: 94.99%

As mentioned at the top, the atmosphere was a bit more somber in the Live Betting + subscription, where we send out picks during matches.

A loss of under five units isn’t alarming in itself – you can’t expect to profit every single month in the variance-heavy world of sports betting. Still, we noticed a tendency for our “over” bets to fall short, even in situations where this type of bet has previously proven profitable – for example, when a team is in danger of relegation and therefore needs to play all-out attack.

That was the case in matches like Freiburg–Holstein Kiel and Kayserispor–Bodrum. In both games, a lack of big chances prevented the matches from developing into the goal-rich scenarios we expected and hoped for.

This could of course be down to randomness, but it also raises the question: does it really pay off to bet on weak teams when they’re expected to take the initiative against an opponent that either can’t or won’t engage?

In the match between Kiel and Freiburg, it became increasingly clear in the last part of the game that Freiburg were content to defend their lead. They did so effectively, and Kiel struggled to create clear chances, even with substantial stoppage time.

A similar story unfolded in the Turkish fixture, where the line of over 2.75 Asian goals suggested high tempo. But Kayserispor seemed quite satisfied with a draw, and bottom side Bodrum simply lacked the ability to create decisive chances or convert those they did get. The result reflected that: no goals.

Nobody can predict match dynamics with 100% accuracy. Misreads happen, and they will happen again. But the fewer we make, the better. That’s why it’s important to learn from the misses and keep refining our decision-making process.

Next time, we should ask questions like:

• Will the favorite look to attack or defend the lead?

• Does the underdog have the quality to create chances against a defensive opponent?

• Is there substantial added time?

• Are there substitutions left that could change the pace or shape of the game?

The more puzzle pieces that fall into place, the stronger the bet. And in the two cases mentioned, something was definitely missing.

Another consideration: these are also the kinds of bets many other bettors are drawn to – because they seem obvious and easy to spot. But the argument “Team A needs to win – therefore there’s value” rarely holds up on its own. We’re betting against the market, and if ‘everyone’ is on the same pick, we risk getting in at a price with no real value. And at some point, the value moves the other way – against the obvious outcome.

We’ll likely see similar recommendations in Live Betting + going forward, but hopefully with sharper analysis so our educated guesses are even more solid.

Other times, we were simply unlucky in May. Take the Serie B match Südtirol–Bari, for example. We were just one goal away from full payout. There were big chances late in the game, but the goal never came – in this case, however, the analysis was spot-on.

You can view the full accounting by clicking here.