Monetos Plus: Frustrating April Halted the Momentum

Senest opdateret: 5. maj 2025

Skrevet af: Tonni Munk Jensen

mail: tj@monetosbetting.dk

*Links med en stjerne efter sig er reklamelinks.

Big profits in February and March were unfortunately followed by a loss in April across our Plus packages. However, a closer analysis of the numbers suggests that variance played a significant role.

Big profits in February and March were unfortunately followed by a loss in April across our Plus packages. However, a closer analysis of the numbers suggests that variance played a significant role.

It’s always disappointing to go through losing periods as a sports bettor, but they are part of the game. During such times, it may seem like a weak excuse to blame it on variance—the natural ups and downs of betting—but in the case of April, particularly in our pre-match group The Sports Bettor, the data actually supports the claim.

Historically, April has been a somewhat tricky month for us. By this point, the market knows the teams very well, and there aren’t that many “finals” yet, as plenty of games remain in the season. That’s also why we were a bit more selective in April, with 42 bets placed in The Sports Bettor.

We struggled with results throughout most of the month, but the overall loss ended up being relatively small (and acceptable) at -4.09 units. And the groundwork actually proved to be quite solid: when measured against the closing odds, it turned out to be the second-best month of the year. Almost as good as March, when we finished +22.15 units, and better than February’s +17.50 units.

Only once did we encounter more than 10% negative closing line value. That was in the match between Hobro and Vendsyssel in the Danish 1st Division, where we recommended the under at odds 1.84, and it closed at 1.99. On the other hand, we had more than 10% positive closing line value in seven bets. The best bet of the month in terms of value was FC Midtjylland draw-no-bet away at Randers in early April. It was recommended at 1.82 and closed at 1.50. Fittingly for the month, the bet didn’t land.

One area where we didn’t perform well this month was with first-half unders and draw bets. The sample size is small, but we may have been a little too quick to assume that certain teams would be satisfied with low-tempo games and a single point.

Overall, 2025 has started well. As of today, we’re up +35.97 units with a solid return of +7.24%. Join the group on Telegram HERE

The Sports Bettor – April Results:

Number of bets: 42
Turnover: 122 units
Result: -4.09 units
ROI: 96.65%

Over Bets (Again) Caused Headaches

While the loss in The Sports Bettor was relatively minor, it was unfortunately bigger in the live betting group. A total of 49 bets resulted in a little over 11 units lost, and it didn’t take long to identify where the main issue was.

As we’ve discussed in past reviews, over bets are often tempting when matches approach the final stages and one team is chasing the game or down to 10 men. Knowing when the odds are good enough and the best timing to place the bet is something we are still working to improve.

In April, we clearly struggled with over bets. Only 8 out of 22 over bets were successful, resulting in a -16.74 unit loss in that category alone. Among those losses was a rare 5-unit play in the Cardiff vs. WBA match, where both teams desperately needed the win—but for inexplicable reasons, neither team pushed for it, and the game ended 0-0.

The other 27 live bets in April returned a solid profit, and it could have been even better had two good bets on title contenders Benfica (Portugal) and Fenerbahce (Turkey) not somehow squandered late leads at home against relegation sides deep into stoppage time. Such equalizers are extremely rare—but unfortunately, we were hit by two in one week.

Just like in The Sports Bettor, live bets have also gotten off to a strong start in May, and with many leagues entering their final stretch, there are plenty of exciting matchups to look forward to in the coming weeks.

Live Betting+ – April Results: