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The Nykøbing recommendation will go down in history as one of the best betting picks based on the closing odds in June, which turned out to be a strong month in The Sportsbettor and a lukewarm one in Live Betting +.
Let’s start with the absolutely insane headline of this article: A betting tip with a bet value of nearly 200 percent! To be exact, 197.81%, once we account for Pinnacle’s margin of 6.7% (we use closing odds from Pinnacle, considered the most objectively “correct” benchmark). This has never happened before in the history of Monetos — a recommendation beating the closing odds by this much. Something like this might happen once every three years, when the bookmakers get things this wrong.
Luckily, our expert Tonni Munk Jensen was spot-on with a tip on Nykøbing to beat Thisted at odds 6.00. The closing odds: 2.83. Unfortunately, Nykøbing lost the match 1-2, but it’s incredibly hard to be disappointed when your money is placed that well. It’s a clear example of the kind of value a subscription like The Sportsbettor can provide. In theory, this translates to a return of 197.81 DKK for every 100 DKK wagered…
Another area where we found value in June was the “0-0 at halftime” bet. Across both the World Cup qualifiers and the Club World Cup, we hit four out of five picks for this specific market. Most notably, Mikkel Westermann’s pick in Mamelodi Sundowns vs. Fluminense at the Club World Cup. The tip was given at odds 3.10, but the closing odds dropped to 2.64, and with a margin of 4.3%, that gives a bet value of 112.38%. It was spot-on based on the game itself — there were just 0.81 expected goals in the first half of what turned out to be a rather dull affair.
Other times, you can beat the closing odds — and then the game just takes a completely different turn. Take Steffen Dam’s tip on under 3.0 goals (Asian line) in the aforementioned Mamelodi vs. Dortmund match. Recommended at odds 1.84, closing at 1.63, which gives a bet value of 108.82%. A very solid bet on a high-profile market like the Club World Cup. But the match ended in a 4-3 win for Dortmund, which surprised most people.
In total, we beat the closing odds — accounting for bookmaker margin — 24 out of 40 times. For the last eight recommendations, the closing odds could not be tracked.
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Number of bets: 48
Stakes: 142 units
Result: +16.6 units
Return on investment: 111.7%
Things went quite differently in Live Betting + this June. The month actually started well with a few wins, but from there, we ran into a number of matches where the game flow was simply misread — and that’s costly in the ruthless world of live betting.
For example, we had two “unders” in Belgium–Wales (under 5.5 goals) and Netherlands–Malta (under 5 Asian goals). In the Belgium match, we took the under relatively early in the second half after a goal-heavy first half. But with a final scoreline of 4-3 to Belgium and an equally attacking second half, we can’t really claim to have been unlucky. Same goes for Netherlands–Malta, which ended 8-0 — the Dutch simply never let up.
Have something changed with the top teams — or teams in general? While there’s no hard evidence, June alone offered multiple examples of top teams just continuing to push forward, regardless of match context. That was also the case in Dortmund’s match vs. Ulsan at the Club World Cup.
Here we backed Dortmund -0.25 Asian late in the match. Objectively, Dortmund would’ve benefited from not chasing a big win in terms of tournament progression. But the reserves were on the pitch, and they clearly didn’t care. They finally had their chance to shine, and no coach or scoreboard-watching fan was going to stop them from scoring more goals.
Looking at the match, the bet itself was well-read — Dortmund missed a couple of big chances. But the timing was poor: we placed the bet just before the odds climbed above 2.00. The timing was even worse in Flamengo vs. Chelsea, where we backed over 3.5 goals. The bet was a winner and well-analyzed, but we placed it right before a water break, and that’s a big no-no. You should never place an “over” or a favorite bet just before a stoppage like that — the price always increases afterward, and the under/underdog drops. We should have known better — these things matter in the long run. We won the bet at odds 1.85, which gave us a +2.55 units profit for 3 units staked. If we had waited and caught odds 2.05 after the break, the profit would’ve been 3.15 units instead. That missing 0.6 units now shows up in the final balance.
Other times, it’s just plain bad luck. For example, we went under 0.5 cards in the second half of Manchester City vs. Juventus at the Club World Cup — odds 2.37. The analysis was that experienced referee Clement Turpin had full control, City were cruising, and there was no reason for the match to turn physical. Two minutes later, the only yellow card of the match was handed out (and rightly so). Was it wrong to place the bet when we did? Should we have waited? Or maybe taken under 1.5 cards earlier? Hindsight is always easy, but we stand by the analysis — we were simply unlucky with the timing.
June 2025 results:
Number of bets: 50
Stakes: 129 units
Result: -13.66 units
Return on investment: 89.4%
