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November delivered solid returns in both Live Betting + and The Sports Bettor. In this article, we review the month’s results and present our guidelines for voiding bets in Live Betting +. Read in Danish – click here.
The live group produced a profit of +14.62 units and a return percentage of 14.33%. This means that for every 100 DKK wagered, you received 114.33 DKK back.
Part of the profit came from one of the best bets we’ve sent out in a long time – a bet that, in hindsight, deserved maximum stake.
Early in the month, we staked three units on over 3.5 goals in FC Köln–HSV, where HSV were chasing goals with nine men and more than 10 minutes of added time had been signalled. The match opened completely, and Köln scored twice more. A fantastic spot, where the only mistake was that the stake should have been higher.
Conversely, we staked too much on over 11.5 corners in Scotland–Denmark. Here, surprisingly little stoppage time was added despite several long interruptions. With four units on the line, we never made it over, and the match changed character immediately after. The lesson is clear: we must be sharper on stoppage time.
Overall, the month featured several strong plays. We caught a significant odds drop on Manchester City -1 at halftime against Leverkusen: we took the bet at just under odds 2.0, and by the start of the second half, the price was around 1.75. The bet didn’t win, as City lost 0–2, but the value was obvious – such a large movement during halftime is rare.
France -0.5 against Ukraine and FCN -0.5 against Fredericia were also strong spots. In Napoli–Qarabag, we again timed things well but voided the first bet because the goal came shortly after it was sent out. That leads to the next topic: how we void bets going forward.
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We have received valuable feedback – notably regarding the Napoli–Qarabag match – and we want maximum transparency. Therefore, we are introducing a clear guideline:
Going forward, we will void a bet if a goal is scored within the first 30 seconds after we have sent it out.
We measure as accurately as we can, but cannot time it with a stopwatch.
We believe 30 seconds is sufficient time to place the bets we send out, especially if you are already logged in to your betting account.
It is also a limit that does not hinder our work too much. If the limit were, for example, 45 or 60 seconds, the long pause in which we cannot “hit” the bet would make things significantly harder. If we send out an over bet with 10 minutes left and cannot count the first 60 seconds, then 10% of the remaining time becomes unusable. If a goal is scored during that period, the bet is voided; if not, the bet stands – but by then the odds will have increased significantly, making it much harder for us to generate long-term profit.
If you have any questions or comments, always feel free to write to kontakt@monetosbetting.dk.
Number of bets: 39
Turnover: 102 units
Profit: +14.62 units
ROI: +14.33%
The Sports Bettor delivered a satisfactory profit of almost 11 units, especially thanks to two strong 0-0 at halftime bets in Trelleborg–Örebro and Moss–Raufoss. At the end of a season, we often see calmer first halves when a lot is at stake, with the big risks taken after halftime. At odds 3.25, these bets returned very well.
We did, however, miss the same type of bet in Hungary–Ireland and Nigeria–Congo, where goals were scored before halftime.
We also hit several good Superliga plays, and it has been a theme throughout the season that our experts have been strong in the Danish league:
Sønderjyske +1 asian vs. AGF
Randers–FC Midtjylland: away win
FCN -1.25 vs. Fredericia, which deserved an even higher stake
When it comes to high-stake bets, we didn’t hit everything – including a larger play in Live Betting + and Barnsley–Lincoln, which didn’t go our way. We also unfortunately closed the month with a couple of suggestions where the odds market moved against us, both in Leverkusen–Dortmund and Brann–HamKam. But the overall impression of the month in the pregame group remains strong, and we are pleased with a positive result.
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Number of bets: 51
Turnover: 145 units
Result: +10.81 units
ROI: +7.46%
