Spil ansvarligt | 18+ | udeluk dig selv: rofus.nu | Spillemyndighedens hjælpelinje: stopspillet.dk (ring på 7022 2825)
*Links med en stjerne efter sig er reklamelinks.
In this article, we review the September results for our two subscriptions Live Betting + and The Sports Bettor.
After a poor August, it was good to bounce back with a strong September in the Live Betting + subscription. Across the 33 bets sent out during the month, we made a profit of 23 units and delivered a very high return of almost 129%.
As we mentioned in our latest review, after a difficult period we focused on what we could do better. We are constantly looking for ways to optimise how we approach live betting. It is a dynamic game where both football itself and the bookmakers are constantly evolving, which means we also need to adjust our strategy.
In September, this resulted, among other things, in more bets on a low number of goals or cards. In other words, betting on something not happening rather than betting on it to HAPPEN. That does not mean we will stop betting on favourites, as there can still be plenty of value to find there.
Bayern Munich -2 Asian Handicap against Bodø/Glimt was a good example. We also won half of our bet on Porto -1.75 against Moreirense. Brøndby -0.25 Asian Handicap against Vejle produced a full win.
One of the best bets of the month, however, was on an underdog. At half-time in Turkey’s match against Italy, we backed Turkey +0.25 Asian Handicap. Italy were leading 3-0 after a miserable first half from Turkey, which was probably one of the reasons we were offered such an attractive price on the Turks. In the second half, Turkey performed far better and ‘won’ the expected goals battle 2.64-0.90. The second half finished 1-1, meaning we won half of the odds.
There is a valuable lesson to take from that wager. On one side, we had an underdog that really needed to come out and redeem themselves in the second half. On the other, we had a footballing powerhouse that had effectively secured the victory already and could afford to look ahead to their next fixture during a busy international period.
It might have seemed natural to think that Italy would simply continue to steamroll a Turkey side that had looked terrible during the opening 45 minutes, but this is precisely where we hopefully can make a better-informed assessment than the market and correctly read how the second half, viewed in isolation, is likely to play out. Put rather bluntly, what happened in the first 45 minutes can almost be irrelevant; the task is to work out what is going to happen in the final 45 minutes.
Number of bets: 33
Turnover: 80 units
Result: +23 units
Return: 128.77%
September ended with a small loss of 1.76 units after a month containing both good and bad bets.
Staying with the positives to begin with, one particularly strong bet was both teams to score in Levante-Barcelona. The match finished 2-4, and we staked 2.5 units at odds of 1.82 on a selection that eventually closed as low as 1.62.
Another positive was a strong Danish Superliga bet on Silkeborg +0.75 Asian Handicap against Viborg. We have regularly discussed on our podcasts how the market views Silkeborg differently from the Monetos team, and it was good to see Silkeborg once again live up to our expectations by covering the handicap.
We also saw an extraordinary move on Leverkusen -2.25 Asian Handicap against Celje. We had uncovered internal unrest in the Celje camp, so we backed Leverkusen, who eventually closed at around -3 Asian Handicap! That was a huge market move and something we can only be pleased with. Unfortunately, Leverkusen ended up winning just 2-0.
Naturally, there were also some poor bets during the month. We did not get OB +0.25 Asian Handicap against FCK in the first half quite right, Barcelona ended up dismantling Santander after we had recommended Santander +3.5 Asian Handicap, and Honduras suffered a somewhat surprising defeat against Suriname.
There will inevitably be months that end in the red, but if we can keep the losses limited during those months, it leaves more room for the profits to make a real difference in the good months, which fortunately was the case throughout the first seven months of the year.
Number of bets: 42
Turnover: 118 units
Result: -1.76 units
Return: 98.51%
